Gabon is finally about to hold its legislative elections, a poll that was originally scheduled for December 2016 but delayed several times due to President Ali Bongo’s efforts to defuse the political tensions that followed his dodgy win in 2016’s presidential election.
Senate and presidential elections in Gabon are held separately from legislative elections and the members are elected to single member constituencies, via a simple majority. It is important to note that the Assembly is currently controlled by President Bongo’s Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG). This year, the people will head to the polls to elect 111 members of the National Assembly.
In 2011, the year when the last legislative elections were held, the opposition called for a boycott of the exercise and as a result of this, the PDG won the lion’s share of seats, while parties allied to it won five seats, leaving only two for the opposition. Fortunately, this will not be the case this year as members of the opposition party are set to participate fully.
In Gabon, the party that wins a majority of seats in the National Assembly is permitted to form a government with its leader as prime minister, even though the recent constitutional reforms appear to have stripped the prime ministerial position of many of its powers. Presently, Mr Bongo’s PDG is poised to retain its majority in the new parliament.
The first round of elections in the country occurred on the 6th of October (the same day as local authority elections) and the second round will take place on October 27.
While the results from last weekend’s elections remain unannounced, many fear that electoral violence may still be on the horizon. Since the 2016 presidential election, where Jean Ping claimed to be the rightful winner (defeated only by alleged electoral fraud), political developments in Gabon have often been marred by public violence and unrest. These incidents generally occur around Libreville or Port-Gentil, and are often aggressively contained by security forces, with mass detentions being recorded.
Key opposition leaders have also faced travel restrictions aimed at preventing them from leaving the country. This unrest reached its peak most recently, during the period when aforementioned political reforms were announced. The ruling party constructed and debated the amendments to the constitution with no publication or public discourse and, in combination with the delay to elections, this inspired significant civil unrest from December 2017 through to January 2018. More sporadic outbreaks of unrest have occurred since, although the pace has reduced significantly. It remains likely that the legislative elections will provide another reason for protests.
Right now, political analysts and observers are watching to see how the legislative elections will end, whilst keeping in mind that there is the possibility of electoral fraud when the results are announced.
