Following recent revelations by the Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman, Mahmud Yusuf, that 79 political parties have submitted presidential candidates ahead of the 2019 elections, it is fair to say that Nigerians will be spoilt for choice when they get to the polls next year.
2019 is gearing up to be the most intriguing election year in recent history, as fresh contenders throw their hats in the ring for the first time, including Global Analytics CEO, Tope Fasua, and former Minister of Education, Oby Ezekwesili.
With the recently concluded National Economic Summit shedding more light on the direct relationship between quality leadership and economic growth, the need for credible leaders has become more imperative for Nigerians, now more than ever. This need also comes on the heels of Nigeria’s current low ranking on the Ease of Doing Business index and the country’s stalled GDP growth.
In May, President Buhari signed the Not Too Young to Run bill in an attempt to make leadership positions accessible to young people and, although the bill has not been fully enacted, three major contenders in the 2019 presidential polls are set to represent the youth and make their mark.
But, are the odds in their favour?
Donald Duke:
After leaving the Governor’s seat of Cross River state and switching alliances from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Donald Duke has proven himself one of the contenders to watch in 2019.
Governing Cross River in Obasanjo’s PDP from 1999-2007, Duke is known for his success in transforming Cross River into Nigeria’s biggest tourist haven during his tenure with the establishment of the Obudu Cattle Ranch and the Tinapa Business Resort. Both have played a major part in increasing the state’s capital inflow through tourism alone.
After a keenly contested primary election, Duke emerged the flag bearer for the SDP, beating former Minister of Information Jerry Gana. His chances of winning are still being debated as he is set go head-to-head with the presidential candidate of his former party, Atiku Abubakar.
Fela Durotoye:
Another candidate slowly building momentum as we move closer to the 2019 polls is the Alliance for New Nigeria’s Fela Durotoye, who beat out Kingsley Moghalu to become the consensus candidate for the Presidential Aspirants Coming Together (PACT), a coalition formed by several aspirants in a bid to present and support a consensus candidate for the 2019 presidential elections.
The motivational speaker and business strategist with clients in different sectors ranging from Banking and Finance to Oil and Gas, declared his full intention to run by picking up the ANN presidential form this year.
Kingsley Moghalu:
Coming in second to Durotoye in the PACT elections, former CBN deputy governor and Young Progressive Party’s candidate, Kingsley Moghalu, has maintained his intent to run for the highest seat in the country. Dubbed the ‘Emmanuel Macron’ of the race by The Times of London, Moghalu’s experience in economic issues and intended policy changes have been lauded by the international community.
With these presidential aspirants in mind, conversations about the probability of getting qualified candidates into the presidential office have begun. As much as they present a modern approach to addressing the challenges affecting the country, whether or not they are able to overcome some of the challenges facing them is yet to be seen.
What are the challenges?
The first issue of note is the lack of grassroots support for the three aspirants mentioned above. Going against well-known and established politicians, who have been able to garner local support over the past decades, seems to be a major hurdle that they must overcome as soon as campaign season kicks off. Although Duke may have an edge over the other two, his reach pales in comparison to former party mate, Atiku Abubakar, and the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari.
Durotoye and Moghalu, although popular with the elite of the country, still lack the standing required in local communities to carry them through the polls as they are barely household names. To really increase their odds in the upcoming elections, this is one hurdle they all need to cross.
Another factor to be considered is the political platforms these candidates intend to run on. Duke left the PDP for the SDP, a less known political party, and this will be reducing his chances in the polls next year. Similarly, Durotoye and Moghalu, with no political background, are running in new parties. Coupled with the lack of financial backing and the reach required to match the other aspirants running in well known parties, this will definitely be an obstacle to overcome.
These, among other factors, are the major challenges these aspirants are likely to face ahead of the 2019 elections and, unfortunately, these are some of the factors that will make or break any candidate in a country like Nigeria.
