6 riskiest states ahead of the 2019 general elections – key issues raised by the International Crisis Group

The Election Network, January 3, 2019

The latest report by the International Crisis Group portrays a grim prospect for the upcoming 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The ICG predicts that loss of lives as a result of electoral violence could surpass the scale of the 2015 polls which saw about 100 deaths.

In 2019, with parts of the country in turmoil, violence could take more lives and jeopardise the country’s stability.

The report outlined a three pronged threat to the peaceful conduct of the elections to include the following: One – lack of institutional readiness on the part of INEC, the electoral management agency; Two – perception of bias of security agencies by opposition politicians and Three – heightened insecurity including the Boko Haram threat, banditry and ethnic tensions which are being stoked by politicians to fire their bases. The listed the six riskiest states to watch and the key issues around them. Breakdown as follows:

Rivers

  • State revenue profile
  • Bitter rivalry between incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike and his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi
  • Recent History of violence:
  • State security outfit with unknown motives and availability of armed militia

Akwa Ibom

  • State revenue profile
  • Struggle for political control between Governor Udom Emmanuel and his predecessor Godswill Akpabio

Kaduna

  • Very volatile state which accounted for more than half of the deaths from the 2011 post election violence which took place across 12 states
  • Long history of ethnic tensions that has escalated with over 100 deaths in 2018
  • Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s selection of a fellow muslim candidate away from traditional religious ticket mix
  • Potential clashes by supporters of opposing camps

Kano

  • Violent clashes between the devout supporters of the two competing power blocs – the incumbent Governor Ganduje’s Gandujiyya and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya. 

Plateau

  • Breakdown of internal security in the state with attacks responsible for the death of 1,800 people and displacement of more than 50,000 across 6 local governments of the state.
  • Ethnic clashes between indigenes and ‘Fulani’ settlers and political rhetoric which has seen the incumbent Governor Lalong being framed as a Fulani sympathiser while the main opponent a current PDP senator and retired General, Jeremiah Useni is rallying the indigenes.

Adamawa

  • Political turf war between the wife of the incumbent President, Aisha Buhari and his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar wife over who is in charge of their home state might lead to heightened desperation on both sides.
  • Escalation of herder-farmer conflict over the past one year has led to hundreds of killings
  • Alleged state support for local youth gangs known as the ‘Shila Boys’

Read the full ICG report here

Story first appeared on our microsite for the Nigerian Elections 2019.

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