Five States to Watch in Nigeria’s Gubernatorial Election

The ongoing governorship and State House of Assembly elections mark the end of another Nigerian election cycle. Granted, some results may be contested, with People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, currently seeking redress on the result of the February 23 polls, today’s gubernatorial election is the final lap in a highly controversial and tumultuous election season for the country.

With the polls currently ongoing in 29 states across the country including the The Federal Capital Territory, Nigerians are taking part in deciding their state representatives, from governors to ward heads.

Based on the events leading up to, during, and after the Presidential and National Assembly polls, we examine five major states likely to attract a bulk of the focus in today’s polls.

Lagos State

Nigeria’s commercial hub was one of the states where the presidential election process was marred by political violence and voter suppression.

Running for governor in the state is a new All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu, whose face seems to be inescapable around Lagos with billboards and posters defacing a majority of the streets. His main opposition however, is the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP), Jimi Agbaje who intends to unseat the ruling APC after 12 consecutive years in power.

The conversation surrounding the violence in Lagos, which led to the cancellation of the election in several polling units, has raised issues about tribalism, as the major areas where voter suppression prevailed, happened to be densely populated by Easterners, a tactic the PDP alleges the APC adopted, to reduce the chances of its candidate in the race.

With this in mind, Lagos state, which recorded a low turnout during the Presidential and National Assembly polls, is most likely going to record a lower volume this time around, as it decides its state representatives.

Rivers State

Another state hit by a wave of attacks during last month’s presidential election was Rivers state. Here, several people lost their lives due to violence that occurred during the polls.

Aggression in the state has also risen due to back and forth accusations between former governor of the state and current Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and the incumbent governor, Nyesom Wike, who is gunning for a second term.

While the army has successfully apprehended some electoral offenders, controversies have trailed allegations that the military, which by constitution should be neutral during the election, seems to have been politicized by the ruling APC.

The Nigerian Police Force has, however, reassured residents of the state that the elections today will take a different route than the former, with more security personnel deployed to the state, to help douse the tension at the polls.

Kaduna

Ahead of the 2019 general elections, Kaduna state had already stepped into the spotlight for the wrong reasons.

The governor of the state, Nasir El-Rufai, had been accused of inciting violence, due to a statement he made during an interview where he appeared to threaten the lives of foreign observers, saying they would leave the country in body bags. While his comments resulted in mass disapproval from Nigerian citizens, his party and the presidency still stood by him.

On the 15th of February, over 60 people were reported dead in killings that occurred in the Kajuru Local Government Area of the state.

While details of the attack still remain unconfirmed, several organizations and agencies have called for special attention to be paid to the state for the rest of the election period. 

Imo State

While most of the other states on this list have had to deal with political violence during this election period, Imo state has been going through a different political turmoil of its own.

When outgoing governor of the state, Rochas Okorocha, decided to push his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as his replacement, it was immediately met with criticism by the general public. However, the ticket from his party was handed over to a different political candidate, a move that started a war of words and power tussle between the governor, and the APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole.

Okorocha, who decided to take a shot at the Senate, was declared winner of the National Assembly poll in his Senatorial District, and begun preparations set to represent, Imo West Senatorial District, that is until the district’s returning officer, Professor Innocent Ibeabuchi, accused the governor of strong-arming him into declaring him winner of the senatorial elections.

While the case is actively being investigated, the APC has suspended the outgoing governor, continuing his battle with Oshiomhole.

His son-in-law Uche Nwosu is still running for governor, but under a different party, the Action Alliance (AA), making this state another one to watch.

Osun State

Although Osun state is not participating in the gubernatorial elections going on today, the state is still dealing with controversies surrounding the outcome of its gubernatorial polls, which took place in September, 2018.

While INEC declared APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola as governor-elect of the state after a rerun which took place in seven polling units across four council areas, the PDP candidate, Ademola Adeleke and his party, have refused to accept the results of the election.

Adeleke previously led the polls with 254,698 votes against Oyetola’s 254,345 votes, and both candidates depended on the re-run to determine the winner.

The judgement of the petitioned filed by the PDP and its candidate, is set to be announced soon, with the Osun State Election Petition Tribunal, stating on Thursday, that it would come to a decision in the next few days, determining which candidate, will take over the governorship mantle of the state.

Elections are currently ongoing in the state for other state representative positions, with complaints of low voter turnout.