Postmortem of Nigeria’s 2019 general elections

From pre-election violence leading to several deaths across the country; to mysterious fires gutting offices and vehicles of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC); and an abrupt postponement of the presidential elections merely hours before it began, the 2019 general elections seemed to have been mired in several challenges even before Nigerians went to the polls.

As the inauguration of newly elected and re-elected leaders draws nearer, and before Nigerians are engulfed in collective amnesia, it is necessary to go over the election season for the sake of documenting the challenges faced as well as highlighting some of the lessons learned.

The Challenges

Violence: A high rate of violence was recorded in the period shortly before the elections and during the elections. About 181 people were reported to have been killed in the days leading to the initial date slated for the presidential elections in February.

However, a postponement of the February 18 elections to February 23 deepened tension within the country, and likely the occurrence of violence. The European Union Observer Mission (EU OM) recorded that approximately 20 and 35 people were killed in incidents related to the elections on February 23.

These deaths do not take into account the number of deaths and casualties from terrorist attacks in Yobe and Borno States before voting commenced on the same day.

A total of 11 states were flashpoints during both the presidential and gubernatorial elections. However, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, and Rivers were seen to be the most affected. Across Anambra, Lagos, and Rivers states, violence and security crises led to the cancellation of the electoral processes.

Credibility: The credibility of the entire electoral process has been questioned and debated since the conclusion of the elections in March. Several cases contesting the results of the elections are at various election tribunals seeking fair hearing by the judiciary.

A major challenge which raises doubts over the credibility of the elections is the rate of canceled ballots which has been stated to have undermined the votes of up to 3 million Nigerians. Elections were declared inconclusive in seven states as a result of the cancellations. Coincidentally, or not, the PDP was leading in five of these states.

Another challenge was the interference by security agents. Several cases of harassment —against INEC officials, members of civil society organizations, and the media, by security agents, were reported. In Rivers State, for example, military personnel reportedly prevented members of the European Union and Nigerian civil society observers from gaining access to collation centers. Subsequently, Rivers was one of the states where the elections were canceled and had to be rescheduled.

Recorded cases of vote buying were seen to have dominated in a few states across the nation. This has also cast a shadow of doubts about the legitimacy of some of the victories recorded. States where vote buying was recorded, include Adamawa, Sokoto, Lagos, Delta, Enugu, Ekiti, Bauchi, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau, Kwara, Zamfara, Kebbi, Oyo, Kano, and Osun.

Voter Apathy: The 2019 elections have had the lowest voter turnout since 1999. This has been attributed to the postponement, by a week, of the presidential election, and the militarization of the process which is believed to have led to voter intimidation. In addition, Nigerians are assumed to be losing faith in the freedom and fairness of the electoral process.

How Can Nigeria Do Better?

Nigeria has received several recommendations on how it can conduct better elections from international organizations as well local players and stakeholders. Foremost amongst them is the need to review and improve on electoral laws.

The National Executive Council of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) blamed the irregularities and violence witnessed during the elections on the refusal to review and update electoral laws prior to the 2019 elections. The party has urged the incoming administration to work towards reviewing electoral laws before 2023. Some of the challenges a review will address include restrictions on candidacy, weak transparency and accountability measures, and the absence of sanctioning powers for INEC.

The onus for electoral reforms has been placed on INEC as well as the responsibility for naming institutions, individuals and events which might have undermined its ability to conduct better elections. Beyond these, the Commission has been urged to be more transparent. Particularly with the results and collation processes; the provision of voter guidelines and election officials’ manuals; and with the overall dissemination of relevant information to political parties and voters.

There is also a need for security agencies to be held accountable for the misconduct of their agents during the elections. The military seems to have been at the fore of many of the cases of misconducts recorded; while the Nigerian Army has denied the involvement of its men, it has nonetheless set up a committee to investigate the activities of its personnel in all states accused of electoral misconduct. Other agencies, the Nigerian Police Force, the Department of State Security can also follow suit.

The incoming administration has its work cut out for it because it will be responsible for investigating and ensuring accountability for loss of life, voter disenfranchisement, and efforts to manipulate election results, etc. The administration is also responsible for ensuring that the mistakes of the 2019 elections are not repeated in 2023.

Nigerians, and indeed the world, is watching to see how it will fare in executing these responsibilities.

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