With over 200 days until the first major contest of the presidential primaries season in America (known as the Iowa caucuses), early snapshots of what the general election may look like have begun to unfold. In a new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, where 800 registered voters were surveyed between July 7-9, President Trump seems to be lagging behind three Democratic Party candidates.
What Are the Scores?
In an earlier poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News between June 28 and July 1, only former vice president Joe Biden had the strongest advantage over Trump, by 10%. In the most recent poll, Biden is still currently in the lead against Trump by 9 points, 31% to 42%, the widest margin among the top four Democratic contenders. Senator Bernie Sanders leads by 7 points, 50% to 43%, Senator Elizabeth Warren by 5 points 48%-43% points and Senator Kamala Harris appears to be in a tie with the president as she leads with just about 1 point, 45% to 44%. All the other candidates are polling at 1% or less, they will need to be polling at 2% or higher to qualify for the Democratic debates in September and October.
However, Trump’s best numbers come with Republicans and he is most likely his party’s only nominee; his only challenger, so far, is Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts.
Why is Biden Leading?
After describing him as “One Per Cent Joe,” Trump may be facing his strongest challenger at the polls next year. Biden’s lead over Trump is largely due to the former vice president’s performance among independent voters, whites, African-American and suburban residents, than the other Democrats in the running. Also, forty-five percent of registered voters approve of the president’s job, while 52 percent currently disapprove of his work. If these polls translate to real votes for Biden, states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which Trump narrowly won in 2016, will be his strongholds.
Birds of the Same Feather, Flocking Separately
With Biden and Trump though, there are a lot of similarities. They are both almost the same age and have a reputation for not being modest speakers. According to the New Yorker: “Both men have a reputation for being undisciplined speakers, in ways that expose their characters—a meandering exuberance on Biden’s part, casual cruelty on Trump’s.” However, their voters may not be that similar. Also, following Trump’s recent comments on Congresswomen of colour, it may be more difficult for people of colour to support Trump next year.
The Challenger may have a Challenger
American billionaire and hedge fund manager, Tom Steyer, joined the race to become the Democratic presidential nominee. With a pledge to spend $100 million of his own billion-dollar fortune, he announced his intentions on the last day of the polls conducted between July 7 and 9. Fox News described him as Biden’s biggest threat and while he may have the good fortune of removing Biden from the race, he may not be so lucky against Trump.
