Southern Ethiopia on the Verge of a Breakaway

Farida Adamu, July 17, 2019

A group of Ethiopian youth activists and Sidama ethnics have announced that they will declare the southern region of Sidama a separate federal state within the country. The Sidama gave an ultimatum to the government, announcing that they would unilaterally declare statehood on July 18 2018, if the government fails to have a referendum by then. Sidama is a zone in the southern region of Ethiopia and is currently part of the multi-ethnic Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR).

Why does Sidama want an independent state?

The Sidama, who make up about 5 percent of Ethiopia’s 105 million people, have agitated for years to leave the diverse Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region and create their own state. Thursday marks a year since SNNPR’s parliament accepted that there should be a referendum on Sidama’s future. The vote should have happened within the last 12 months, according to the constitution. The autonomy which the other nine regional states have is Sidama’s most apparent reason for seeking a breakaway.

Will Sidama get a referendum?

Ethiopia’s electoral umpire (National Electoral Board of Ethiopia) rejected this ultimatum, explaining that they can extend the referendum by five months at most. However, the board has announced that legal preparations and consultations with stakeholders and leaders are ongoing and a referendum for Sidama’s statehood should be set by the fifth month. Sidama activists remain defiant.

Is extending the referendum wise?

Stopping them from declaring their own state, in line with their ultimatum, can lead to a crisis. But granting it also comes with its challenges as nine other zones in the region have demanded statehood status as well. Granting this referendum could see the beginning of the end of Ethiopia as a single entity.

International Crisis Group Analyst, William Davison said: “The Sidama movement is committed to self-declaration on July 18. The authorities are likely to reject that as unconstitutional, but that could well lead to protests that may trigger violence.”

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