In a new report, the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Burundi has expressed concerns over the country’s elections set for 2020, citing an atmosphere of fear and intimidation in the East African country.

The investigators, who were denied access to Burundi, said they based their findings on more than 1,200 statements collected from victims, witnesses, alleged perpetrators and other sources.

The opening statement for the report read: “The human rights violations are essentially political in nature, and the suppression of civil liberties is intensifying in the run-up to the 2020 presidential and legislative elections. In accordance with the principles of early warning and prevention, the Commission has identified several risk factors in the current environment.”

What Could Go Wrong?

Using a UN risk analysis for potential atrocity crimes, the investigators outlined eight factors that posed major risk to the Burundi elections, summarised below:

1. Economic instability caused by a scarcity of resources and the acute poverty of the population.
2. A history of serious human rights violations that, because they have not been prevented or punished, create a risk of further violation.
3. The weakness of state structures, which negatively affect the capacity of a state to prevent, halt or prosecute atrocities.
4. The existence of reasons, aims or drivers that justify the use of violence against particular groups. 
5. The capacity to encourage or recruit large numbers of supporters and distribute arms and ammunition for them–– Imbonerakure, for example.
6. The lack of a strong, organised and representative national civil society and of a free, diverse and independent national media.
7. Enabling circumstances or preparatory actions, whether sudden or gradual, that provide an environment conducive to the commission of atrocities.
8. Measures taken by the international community are perceived by the Burundian authorities as threats to state sovereignty.

If these factors are not monitored, Burundi may have a bloody election next year. The country has been entangled in a serious political crisis since the announcement of Nkurunziza’s controversial candidacy for a third term in April 2015.

This crisis has resulted in at least 1,200 deaths and over 400,000refugees between April 2015 and May 2017, according to estimates by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The UN investigators will submit their report to the UN Human Rights Council by September 17, which will determine whether their mandate will be renewed.