After repeated attempts to form a government, Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, called for a snap election back in September. The new election, slated for November 10th, was a gamble in the hopes that he would gain more seats to end the political stalemate.
Then and Now
Following the April 28 election, a left-wing coalition government was seen as most likely, consisting of the Prime Minister Sanchez’s Socialist (PSOE) party and Unidas Podemos, with the support of one or more regional nationalist parties. However, Sanchez and Podemos leader, Pablo Iglesias, failed to reach an agreement after Sanchez refused to have Podemos members as ministers. With insufficient support in the Congress of Deputies, Sanchez’s investiture failed.
| Party | 10/11/2019 | 28/04/2019 |
| Socialist (PSOE) | 120 | 123 |
| People’s Party | 88 | 66 |
| Vox | 52 | 24 |
| Ciudadanos | 10 | 57 |
| Unidas Podemos | 35 | 42 |
| Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC-Sobiranistes) | 13 | 15 |
| Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) | 7 | 6 |
| Others | 25 | 17 |
Majority: 176 seats
Data Source: Politico
Second Time Is the Charm
On the 12th of November, two days after the latest election, Sanchez and Iglesias announced they had reached an agreement to form a coalition government. The disagreements of the past apparently no longer mattered as reports said the new deal includes a deputy prime ministerial role for Iglesias.
Despite this agreement, the numbers do not add up. The PSOE-Podemos alliance amounts to 155 seats, short of the 21 more seats needed for a majority.
A Far-Right Threat?
The far-right Vox party was seen as the largest winners in the November election, having won more than double of the seats it received in the April election when it first entered the national parliament. The dissatisfaction with the crisis of the Catalan independence movement may be a major factor responsible for the rise of the Vox party, which has a hard-line stance against regional autonomy.
This situation further exacerbates Sanchez’s lack of support. Support from the small nationalist parties will suggest that his government is siding with those who want to divide Spain, whereas ideological differences would make support from the right-wing Vox party unlikely. Similarly, support from the People’s party has been ruled out.
Nonetheless, compromises would have to be made to prevent another election, as voter apathy and anger rises over recurring elections.
