Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came in like a breath of fresh air after prolonged years of political unrest in Ethiopia. After being installed as the chairman of the now-defunct ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, he became the Prime Minister of the country, brought much needed political reforms and improved the participation of women in politics in the country. The biggest star on his shoulder, however, was intervening in the 18-year feud between Ethiopia and Eritrea which bagged him the Nobel Peace Prize.
An Idea Whose Time Has Come
However, PM Abiy appears to be on the side of a war with opposition groups in Ethiopia, particularly because of his idea of a unitary system of government, which informed his dismantling the four-part ethnic coalition that brought him into power, into one party called the Prosperity Party.
As elections in Ethiopia draw closer, Abiy Ahmed’s ideology of a more unitary state continues to heat up the opposition. Recall that in 2019, the Sidama people voted successfully for a referendum that gives them federal autonomy. But there could be so much more to worry about:
Jawar Mohammed, Ally Turned Opposition
Abiy’s former ally, Jawar Mohammed an activist and media mogul fell out with PM Abiy over his unitary reforms, insisting it is a ploy by the premier to hold on to power. “We fought against a one-party dominated system, now he’s trying to create a one man-dominated system,” he said while speaking to FT.
Mr Jawar has also joined the Oromo Federalist Congress party because of “their clear stand on federalism”. He will be running for office alongside the incumbent and he will leverage on the wide support he has from Oromia youths who have been organizing anti-Abiy protests. He must, however, relinquish his US citizenship to become a contender, a process he said he has begun.
A Timeline of Opposition Moves
Last year, seven opposition parties dissolved themselves to create a new entity called Ethiopia Citizens for Social Justice (ECSJ) led by Berhanu Nega, an ex-political prisoner, with the sole aim of undermining Abiy Ahmed in the coming elections.
The Oromo Federalist Congress, the Oromo Liberation Front and the Oromo Nationalist Party have also come together in another move to test the incumbent’s popularity, a political alliance they call the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF).
Last week, the Tigray people one of the ethnic coalitions who refused to be dissolved into Abiy’s Prosperity party held their own electionsdespite postponement by the National Electoral body. Their objectives remain similar and clear; continuous and strengthened autonomy for ethnic groups.
Another failing of Abiy has been his inability to manage the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia. Currently, there are over 3.2 million Ethiopians displaced internally, due to conflict and drought, the highest number globally, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). These issues interacting together at once seem to predict a bleak political future to the Prime Minister.
Ethiopia consists of ten regional states: Oromia region, Amhara region, Somali region, Tigray region, Gambela region, Southern nation’s nationalities and people region, Afar region, Benishangul-Gumuz region, Harari region and the Sidama region which was formed after a referendum last year. There are also two Administrative states (Addis Ababa City administration and Dire Dawa city council).
