A by-election for a seat in the House of Commons in the county of Brecon and Radnorshire, Wales, took place on August 1, 2019. For Britain, this was more than just choosing a local representative as this election has a larger implication for national politics and the UK’s planned exit from the EU.
Why is a by-election happening?
In March 2019, Brecon and Radnorshire MP, Chris Davies was convicted for making a false expenses claim. Following this, he was successfully unseated after 19% of the voters in the county signed a recall petition. According to the BBC, the UK recall procedure, which came to being in 2015, allows for a recall if:
- An MP is convicted of an offence and sentenced to prison for less than a year (and has exhausted all appeal routes);
- An MP is suspended from Parliament for more than 10 sitting days, following a report by the Committee on Standards;
- An MP is convicted of making false or misleading Parliamentary expenses claims.
Despite being recalled, an MP is allowed to stand in fresh elections for the seat. Davies of the Conservative party chose this route and re-contested in the election.
Election Result
Why does this election matter?
The current UK government, led by PM Boris Johnson, is a coalition of the Conservative party (317 seats) and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; 10 seats). Following this by-election in Wales, the conservatives have now lost a seat in the 650-seat house, weakening the government’s majority.
There is a lot at stake here. A thin majority could make the PM vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, ending his government. Over Brexit, the UK’s planned departure from the European Union, there are two camps: pro-Brexit (Leave camp) and anti-Brexit (Remain camp). There are differing opinions on how to handle the matter, with the opposition failing to see eye to eye. Johnson has vowed to get the UK out of the EU with or without a deal.
If a confidence vote is called, it is unlikely the opposition will vote in favour of Johnson’s government. Additionally, MPs within his own party saying they may vote against a government to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
The deadline for Brexit looms and there is still no clear path on how to achieve the desired deal.
The Liberal Democrats’ win in Brecon and Radsonshire is a show of an anti-Brexit alliance. They were supported by two other anti-Brexit parties, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, who did not stand in this election in order to give the Liberal Democrats a better chance of winning.
A win for anti-Brexit?
In an address after her victory, Jane Dodds said: “My very first act as your new MP when I get to Westminster will be to find Mr Boris Johnson, wherever he’s hiding, and tell him to stop playing with the future of our community and rule out a no-deal Brexit.”
However, it is important to note that there is a chance this vote in Wales does not reflect widespread opinions about Brexit as there are various other reasons that determine how people vote.
According to Prof Laura McAllister, from Cardiff University: “There are always nuanced undercurrents to this. The reality is Brexit isn’t the only issue people were voting on… People were probably voting on rural and local issues. We can never categorically say this was about Brexit.”
Brexit continues to be a prominent topic in UK politics and the uncertainty surrounding it leaves many confused.
