Argentina is scheduled to hold its general election on October 27, 2019. As a precursor, a primary election was held on August 11, 2019, and its result has had unwanted consequences for the country’s economy.
Electoral System
Argentina has a presidential system and a bicameral legislature collectively called the National Congress. Presidential terms are four years long and are renewable once. Elections into the Senate are for a term of six years, with one-third of the seats elected every two years. Elections to the Chamber of Deputies (lower house) are for a term of four years, with half of the members elected every two years.
Prior to the general election, primary elections (called PASO) are held. First introduced in the 2011 elections, the primary elections serve as an indicator poll for the main election. All parties (or coalitions) registered for the main election run and citizens cast a single vote for any candidate. They give an idea of who the popular candidates, likely to garner enough support for the main election, are. Candidates who cannot garner up to 1.5% of the votes will not be eligible to run in the main election.
Presidential elections will be conducted in a two-round system if necessary. A candidate can win the presidency in the first round if they receive up to 45% of the vote or 40% of the vote with a 10% lead ahead of the second-place candidate. If no candidate meets this threshold, the two top candidates will face each other in a runoff.
The Presidential Candidates
Of the nine presidential candidates fielded, the two prominent ones are:
Mauricio Macri: Incumbent President Macri is in a tight race for his re-election bid. He assumed office in 2015, promising to revive the economy. However, inflation and unemployment rates remain unpleasantly high, with nearly a third of the country living below the poverty line. In April 2019, protesters took to the streets expressing their displeasure over subsidy cuts, an austerity measure backed by the IMF, further dimming his popularity.
Alberto Fernandez: Fernandez’s popularity is boosted by who his running mate is –former President Christina Fernandez de Kirchner. Kirchner was President from 2007-2015, while Fernandez served as her chief of staff for her first term. Both Fernandez and Kirchner have been critical of Macri’s government, unimpressed by the current economic situation.
Investors, however, are apprehensive of Kirchner returning to power. Al Jazeera notes that: “Kirchner imposed strict currency controls that slammed investment during her 2007-2015 administration. She fought with the farm sector over export taxes and presided over a multi-year standoff with bondholders that kept Argentina locked out of the international capital markets.”
Results of the Primary Election
Alberto Fernandez led the poll with 47.4% of the vote, with President Macri in second place with 32.3%.
Reactions
Following the release of the results of the primary elections, the Argentine peso fellto 65 pesos per US dollar, a 30% plunge.
Both Macri and Fernandez have pointed fingers at each other. Macri used the fall to point out that a Fernandez/Kirchner ticket would be bad for the country, saying: “The biggest problem is that the Kirchner alternative does not have credibility in the world… I’ve been saying this for three and a half years. It does not have the necessary confidence so that people want to come and invest in the country.”
Fernandez hit back at Macri, accusing him of stoking fear in investors:
“The only person who is responsible for what is happening in Argentina is named Mauricio Macri. “Instead of telling the world, don’t worry, Argentina’s economy is not at risk because the people who are coming are sensible, have paid all the debts that we always leave hanging, if he said that, then the markets wouldn’t worry. But what does he tell the markets: that we’re a band of crazy people. Is it our fault, or his? It’s his.”
Aside from the political impact of the Pesos’ value, there is a direct impact on the country’s citizens, who were already facing economic hardship. Insaurralde, a building manager, told Al Jazeera: “I’m worried that it doesn’t help us at all… Because tomorrow we’re going to go out and buy beef and it’s going to [be] twice the price that it was today.”
