The Autonomous Region of Bougainville is scheduled to hold an independence referendum this year. Polls will open on November 23 and they are expected to stay open for two weeks.

The vote, which has been postponed twice, aims to determine whether or not the region should remain an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea.

Referendum Question

Voters will decide whether the Autonomous Region should have greater autonomy or be fully independent of Papua New Guinea.

Why is this referendum happening?

Following a decade of civil war in Bougainville, an accord called the Bougainville Peace Agreement (where an independence referendum is one of the three pillars of the agreement) was signed in 2001.

The agreement provides for the right, guaranteed in the National Constitution, for a referendum among Bougainvilleans’ on Bougainville’s future political status.

Bougainvill Peace Agreement, 2001

Per the agreement, the referendum should be held no sooner than ten years and no later than fifteen years after the election of the autonomous Bougainville Government. The first election was held in May and June 2005.

What Happens After the Vote?

If Bougainville chooses to become independent, the outcome of the referendum is not actually binding. The National Parliament of Papua New Guinea still has the power to make the final decision.

The outcome of the referendum will be subject to ratification (final decision making authority) of the National Parliament.

Bougainville Peace Agreement, 2001

According to Australia’s Special Broadcasting Service, SBS News, James Marape, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, would prefer if Bougainville stays within PNG, but would respect the choice of the people.

There are expectations that Bougainvilleans will vote for independence. If that happens and the National parliament refuses to grant it, reports suggest that this could escalate into another conflict.